- 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 734
817 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 00:19:04.65 ID:bDwtRzA1 - >>682
いや、全くその通り
>>702
いや、全くその通り
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 735
848 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 17:43:59.58 ID:bDwtRzA1 - Wikileakｓ東京大使館発がいつのまにか大量にでてるね
おまいらの好きな小沢分析も盛り沢山なので必見ですよ
08TOKYO3435 Created 2008-12-17 08:33 Released 2011-07-02 00:00
SUBJECT: DPJ SECURITY POLICY STILL MUDDLED, AS ELECTION
APPROACHES
http://www.wikileaks.ｘｘｘ/cable/2008/12/08TOKYO3435.html *ｘｘｘは適当なミラー鯖を探せ
Ozawa is widely acknowledged as the key to holding the
party together, but there is no unanimity as to what will
happen if the party gains power, or if Ozawa steps down.
Some contacts conjecture that the DPJ will implode within
some relatively brief period of time, leading either to a
return of the LDP or some sort of political realignment. A
few Embassy contacts have even posited the theory that the
former Socialist Party elements within the DPJ might seek to
take advantage of the political capital they have earned over
the past several years for keeping a low profile by claiming
the spoils of an electoral victory. DPJ Lower House member
Keiro Kitagami told the Embassy recently, however, that ""the
DPJ is currently more unified than the LDP, because the DPJ
is close to achieving its goal."" Some DPJ lawmakers,
including Maehara, have registered their disappointment that
Ozawa ran unopposed in the party's September 2008 leadership
race, eliminating the possibility of open debate. Discontent
remains, Kitagami acknowledged, but the members are committed
to staying with Ozawa, at least until the election.
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 735
853 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 17:47:52.06 ID:bDwtRzA1 - しかし、民主党分析で小沢、鳩山、管、前原、岡田、野田、横路とグループ分けした
名前が出てくるのは当然だとして三谷光男（広島5区 野田グループ）
北神圭朗（京都府第4区 前原グループ）の名前出てくるあたり新鮮
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 735
854 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 17:48:50.26 ID:bDwtRzA1 - Ozawa's Policy is the DPJ's Policy, for Now
-------------------------------------------
¶11. (C) For now, understanding Ozawa may be the key to
divining the direction of security policy under a future DPJ
administration, assuming he is willing and able to take on
the post of Prime Minister, or continues to wield power
behind the scenes. Ozawa has argued for greater ""autonomy""
within the U.S.-Japan security alliance, particularly with
regard to decision-making. In the past, he has expressed
support for close consultations, but he has also accused the
LDP of failing to consider Japan's national interests when
pressured by the United States. Lately, his rhetoric has
become more stridently anti-U.S., a move intended solely to
position the DPJ for the looming Lower House elections, DPJ
contacts tell the Embassy. He continues to argue for
wrapping the national security of Japan in the broad mantle
of the UN, and limiting Japan's overseas activities to those
covered by a UN mandate. He has stated his opposition to
revising the current interpretation of the Constitution to
allow Japan to exercise the right of collective self-defense,
although other voices within the DPJ support constitutional
revision of some kind.
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 735
857 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 17:51:28.02 ID:bDwtRzA1 - ¶12. (C) Unfortunately, some Embassy DPJ contacts admit that
Ozawa has grown increasingly difficult to read in recent
years, isolating himself from daily contact with party
lawmakers and relying more and more on a very small inner
circle of advisors. A number of Embassy contacts, citing
Ozawa's strong support for the Alliance during his years as
an LDP power broker, question whether his current positions
on security issues represent a true change in thinking, or
are merely a matter of political expediency for tactical
advantage. Countless DPJ lawmakers and staffers have assured
the Embassy and official visitors from Washington over the
past year that Ozawa has not really changed his stripes, but
is focused on achieving a change in government at any price.
In response to those who question his intellectual integrity
for straying so seemingly far from the rather more hawkish
and nationalist positions laid down in his LDP days, or in
his 1993 book, ""Blueprint for a New Japan,"" Ozawa supporters
assert that his view of Japan as a more ""normal country"" has
always presumed a more equal partnership with the United
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 735
858 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 17:54:22.78 ID:bDwtRzA1 - >>856
そう、宮沢の元秘書だってさ
ま、民主党で誰がすきとか嫌いといった先入観無しに
さっと見ると、次は野田かなって気がｗ
それがアメリカにとって都合がうまくいくと踏んでるように見えるが
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 735
859 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 17:56:50.06 ID:bDwtRzA1 - 同報告書の前原評
¶16. (C) Maehara, regarded as one of the more hawkish
lawmakers in the DPJ, told the Embassy recently he views the
bilateral alliance as a ""public asset"" for Japan and the
region and as the ""underlying framework"" of DPJ security
policy. That doesn't mean he is entirely supportive of
existing U.S. policies. He has defined the first order of
business for a new DPJ government as reviewing the OEF
refueling mission and elements of U.S. force realignment --
halting the former, in favor of some other form of
contribution to Afghanistan, and looking for alternatives
that would be more ""acceptable to the people of Okinawa"" for
the latter. At the same time, Maehara has called openly for
increasing Japan's defense capabilities to protect national
interests and safeguard the sea lanes, amending the
Constitution to allow Japan to exercise the right to
collective self-defense, and taking a harsher stance against
China and the DPRK. He has also promoted the view that Japan
needs to make its own efforts to improve relations with China
and the DPRK outside of the alliance, while still preserving
capabilities for deterrence. Notably, Maehara recently
expressed concern to the Embassy about the ideological divide
within his party, warning that should current shadow foreign
minister (and former Socialist Party member) Yoshio Hachiro
actually become foreign minister in a DPJ government, Japan's
foreign policy and security framework ""would cease to
function"" (Ref B).
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 735
862 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 17:59:33.29 ID:bDwtRzA1 - 岡田評
¶14. (C) DPJ contacts stress that Okada, DPJ leader during the
party's lop-sided loss in the ""postal privatization"" election
of 2005, has worked hard to repair his image as a leader by
staying above the fray of internal party politics. Young and
telegenic by comparison to Ozawa, he is seen as a
bridge-builder within the party, and the only potential
leader who can fill Ozawa's role of keeping the peace between
the ideological wings of the party. The relatively dovish
Okada has faulted the LDP for relying on ""a very small number
of Japan experts"" in managing relations, and recently
traveled to the United States to lay the groundwork for
broader exchanges with the incoming U.S. administration.
Returning from his trip, Okada has proposed playing a
""mediating role"" in negotiating with the Taliban, in lieu of
dispatching the SDF.
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 735
863 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 18:00:04.01 ID:bDwtRzA1 - ルーピー評
15. (C) The generally more conservative Hatoyama has also
criticized the LDP for being ""overly dependent on the United
States,"" asserting that a DPJ administration ""will strike the
right balance"" in relations with the United States and with
Asian neighbors, ""but with slightly more emphasis on the
latter."" Speaking to the Embassy recently, he claimed there
is little difference between the LDP and DPJ on foreign
policy. Like the LDP, he said, ""the DPJ positions the
U.S.-Japan alliance as the axis of its foreign policy."" He
acknowledged, however, that a review of U.S. force
realignment will be the first security issue that the DPJ
will deal with once it gains power. What the DPJ wants to
do, he continued, is ""to build equal relations with the
United States in which Japan can say what it wants to say as
a friend."" He cited Germany and its disagreement with the
United States over the war in Iraq as an example. While
Hatoyama believes it is important to focus on UN-based
civilian cooperation, and has pledged publicly ""to place UN
decisions ahead of U.S. decisions,"" he has told the Embassy
that he regards a totally UN-centered approach as ""too much.""
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 735
910 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 18:34:26.59 ID:bDwtRzA1 - >>891
それは無理だろうね
小沢にも権勢が合った時期だし
面白いのは上記のwikileaksの日付見ると
０８の年末でもう政権交代が織り込み済みってアメリカ東京大使館が
見てたってことで、「今」は同大使館はどう見てるのか気になる
民主、自民の党レベルにもそれなりの情報は入ってるのだろう
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 735
915 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 18:38:10.24 ID:bDwtRzA1 - 少なくともいまは、アメリカの国務大臣が野党党首や
幹事長にわざわざ会いにくるようなことにはなってないな
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 735
927 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 18:46:26.00 ID:bDwtRzA1 - >>917
米国務大臣のヒラリーがわざわざ野党の小沢に会いにくるんだから
あれは内外に政権交代を確信させた一大イベントだったね
そういうエグイことはやってないから、管の次が誰かってことで
政権交代に必要になる、選挙もないのだろうな
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 735
932 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 18:50:11.75 ID:bDwtRzA1 - >>929
その代わりに、部分的にはナチスのやったことはどの国も取りいれてるだろ
アメリカは選挙戦に、日本はかつての経済政策に、
イスラエルは軍事や統治といったコアの部分にｗ
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 735
938 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 18:57:16.33 ID:bDwtRzA1 - 軍服を有名デザイナーのヒューゴ・ボスにデザインさせるとかは
まだどこもやってないよな
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 736
16 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 20:06:06.48 ID:bDwtRzA1 - Wikileakｓ東京大使館発から
おまいらの好きな小沢分析も盛り沢山なので必見ですよ
08TOKYO3435 Created 2008-12-17 08:33 Released 2011-07-02 00:00
SUBJECT: DPJ SECURITY POLICY STILL MUDDLED, AS ELECTION
APPROACHES
http://www.wikileaks.ｘｘｘ/cable/2008/12/08TOKYO3435.html *ｘｘｘは適当なミラー鯖を探せ
Ozawa is widely acknowledged as the key to holding the
party together, but there is no unanimity as to what will
happen if the party gains power, or if Ozawa steps down.
Some contacts conjecture that the DPJ will implode within
some relatively brief period of time, leading either to a
return of the LDP or some sort of political realignment. A
few Embassy contacts have even posited the theory that the
former Socialist Party elements within the DPJ might seek to
take advantage of the political capital they have earned over
the past several years for keeping a low profile by claiming
the spoils of an electoral victory. DPJ Lower House member
Keiro Kitagami told the Embassy recently, however, that ""the
DPJ is currently more unified than the LDP, because the DPJ
is close to achieving its goal."" Some DPJ lawmakers,
including Maehara, have registered their disappointment that
Ozawa ran unopposed in the party's September 2008 leadership
race, eliminating the possibility of open debate. Discontent
remains, Kitagami acknowledged, but the members are committed
to staying with Ozawa, at least until the election.
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 736
17 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 20:06:24.01 ID:bDwtRzA1 - Ozawa's Policy is the DPJ's Policy, for Now
-------------------------------------------
¶11. (C) For now, understanding Ozawa may be the key to
divining the direction of security policy under a future DPJ
administration, assuming he is willing and able to take on
the post of Prime Minister, or continues to wield power
behind the scenes. Ozawa has argued for greater ""autonomy""
within the U.S.-Japan security alliance, particularly with
regard to decision-making. In the past, he has expressed
support for close consultations, but he has also accused the
LDP of failing to consider Japan's national interests when
pressured by the United States. Lately, his rhetoric has
become more stridently anti-U.S., a move intended solely to
position the DPJ for the looming Lower House elections, DPJ
contacts tell the Embassy. He continues to argue for
wrapping the national security of Japan in the broad mantle
of the UN, and limiting Japan's overseas activities to those
covered by a UN mandate. He has stated his opposition to
revising the current interpretation of the Constitution to
allow Japan to exercise the right of collective self-defense,
although other voices within the DPJ support constitutional
revision of some kind.
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 736
18 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 20:06:44.28 ID:bDwtRzA1 - ¶12. (C) Unfortunately, some Embassy DPJ contacts admit that
Ozawa has grown increasingly difficult to read in recent
years, isolating himself from daily contact with party
lawmakers and relying more and more on a very small inner
circle of advisors. A number of Embassy contacts, citing
Ozawa's strong support for the Alliance during his years as
an LDP power broker, question whether his current positions
on security issues represent a true change in thinking, or
are merely a matter of political expediency for tactical
advantage. Countless DPJ lawmakers and staffers have assured
the Embassy and official visitors from Washington over the
past year that Ozawa has not really changed his stripes, but
is focused on achieving a change in government at any price.
In response to those who question his intellectual integrity
for straying so seemingly far from the rather more hawkish
and nationalist positions laid down in his LDP days, or in
his 1993 book, ""Blueprint for a New Japan,"" Ozawa supporters
assert that his view of Japan as a more ""normal country"" has
always presumed a more equal partnership with the United
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 736
20 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 20:07:34.99 ID:bDwtRzA1 - 岡田評
¶14. (C) DPJ contacts stress that Okada, DPJ leader during the
party's lop-sided loss in the ""postal privatization"" election
of 2005, has worked hard to repair his image as a leader by
staying above the fray of internal party politics. Young and
telegenic by comparison to Ozawa, he is seen as a
bridge-builder within the party, and the only potential
leader who can fill Ozawa's role of keeping the peace between
the ideological wings of the party. The relatively dovish
Okada has faulted the LDP for relying on ""a very small number
of Japan experts"" in managing relations, and recently
traveled to the United States to lay the groundwork for
broader exchanges with the incoming U.S. administration.
Returning from his trip, Okada has proposed playing a
""mediating role"" in negotiating with the Taliban, in lieu of
dispatching the SDF.
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 736
21 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 20:07:49.82 ID:bDwtRzA1 - ルーピー評
15. (C) The generally more conservative Hatoyama has also
criticized the LDP for being ""overly dependent on the United
States,"" asserting that a DPJ administration ""will strike the
right balance"" in relations with the United States and with
Asian neighbors, ""but with slightly more emphasis on the
latter."" Speaking to the Embassy recently, he claimed there
is little difference between the LDP and DPJ on foreign
policy. Like the LDP, he said, ""the DPJ positions the
U.S.-Japan alliance as the axis of its foreign policy."" He
acknowledged, however, that a review of U.S. force
realignment will be the first security issue that the DPJ
will deal with once it gains power. What the DPJ wants to
do, he continued, is ""to build equal relations with the
United States in which Japan can say what it wants to say as
a friend."" He cited Germany and its disagreement with the
United States over the war in Iraq as an example. While
Hatoyama believes it is important to focus on UN-based
civilian cooperation, and has pledged publicly ""to place UN
decisions ahead of U.S. decisions,"" he has told the Embassy
that he regards a totally UN-centered approach as ""too much.""
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 736
22 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 20:08:05.78 ID:bDwtRzA1 - 前原評
¶16. (C) Maehara, regarded as one of the more hawkish
lawmakers in the DPJ, told the Embassy recently he views the
bilateral alliance as a ""public asset"" for Japan and the
region and as the ""underlying framework"" of DPJ security
policy. That doesn't mean he is entirely supportive of
existing U.S. policies. He has defined the first order of
business for a new DPJ government as reviewing the OEF
refueling mission and elements of U.S. force realignment --
halting the former, in favor of some other form of
contribution to Afghanistan, and looking for alternatives
that would be more ""acceptable to the people of Okinawa"" for
the latter. At the same time, Maehara has called openly for
increasing Japan's defense capabilities to protect national
interests and safeguard the sea lanes, amending the
Constitution to allow Japan to exercise the right to
collective self-defense, and taking a harsher stance against
China and the DPRK. He has also promoted the view that Japan
needs to make its own efforts to improve relations with China
and the DPRK outside of the alliance, while still preserving
capabilities for deterrence. Notably, Maehara recently
expressed concern to the Embassy about the ideological divide
within his party, warning that should current shadow foreign
minister (and former Socialist Party member) Yoshio Hachiro
actually become foreign minister in a DPJ government, Japan's
foreign policy and security framework ""would cease to
function"" (Ref B).
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 736
201 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 21:39:26.66 ID:bDwtRzA1 - >>130
おっと4代目きた
wikileaksでアメリカからの２００８年１２月当時の小沢評、が出てるぞ
主旨部分は>>16-24に貼っておいた
| - 第46回衆議院総選挙総合スレ 736
798 ：無党派さん[sage]：2011/07/06(水) 23:50:44.61 ID:bDwtRzA1 - >>660
それでwikileaksのアメリカ大使館がワシントンに送った
小沢評価の感想はどんなもんで？
自民党時代はタカ派で鳴らした実力議員から始まる
文章はコンパクトかつ明瞭にまとまってると思うけど
|
|