- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
651 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 09:58:21.52 ID:a5i6xPOD - ペンシルバニア最近の世論調査
President: general election Pa.
OCT 23-28, 2020 A+ Muhlenberg College Biden +5
OCT 28-29, 2020 B Public Policy Polling* Biden +7
OCT 16-29, 2020 D- SurveyMonkey Biden +6
OCT 23-26, 2020 D- Swayable Biden +6
OCT 24-25, 2020 C- Trafalgar Group* Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
652 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 10:08:09.07 ID:a5i6xPOD - Nate Silver@NateSilver538・10分
We've gotten a lot of data, most of it very recent. 91 million people have already
voted. There's no October surprise unless you want to count the latest COVID spike,
which isn't good news for Trump. Trump can win but there's not much indication of a
last-minute surge toward him.
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
653 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 10:12:48.82 ID:a5i6xPOD - Nate Cohn@Nate_Cohn・3時間
New CNN/SSRS polls show Biden ahead in four battleground state polls
MI Biden+12, 53-41
AZ Biden+4, 50-46
WI Biden+8, 52-44
NC Biden+6, 51-45
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
654 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 10:16:22.01 ID:a5i6xPOD - Charles Franklin@PollsAndVotes・10月30日
In my @MULawPoll yesterday 7% were "undecided or declined to answer".
Most of those were early voters declining to answer. But "allocate" them by
fav/unfav to Biden or Trump and they split equally, bring us to 50% Biden 45%
Trump 2% Jorgensen & 2 still unknown.
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
655 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 10:37:15.91 ID:a5i6xPOD - ペンシルバニア州の選挙前最終接論調査について、ネイト・シルバー
Nate Silver@NateSilver538・7分
PA is a state where there's been a fairly big split between live-caller polls and
others, with live-caller data tending to show Biden leads in the mid-to-high
single digits, whereas online/IVR have more often been in the low-to-mid single digits.
Nate Silver@NateSilver538・10分
We're going to be getting, I'm guessing, somewhere along the lines of 5 high-quality
live-caller polls of Pennsylvania by Monday night, plus I'd imagine also some of the
better online stuff like YouGov.
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
656 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 13:31:42.07 ID:a5i6xPOD - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/florida-maintains-toss-status-biden-leads-slightly-pennsylvania/story?id=73930623
Florida maintains toss-up status while Biden leads slightly in Pennsylvania: POLL
There's been little change from September in two critical swing states.
ByGary Langer 1 November 2020, 13:00
ABC-News/WaPoの選挙前最終世論調査：バイデンvsトランプはフロリダで48%-50%、
ペンシルバニアで51%-44%
The pandemic versus the economy defines the presidential contest in two key
battlegrounds, with Florida holding firm to its toss-up status while Joe Biden
leads slightly in Pennsylvania in the season's final ABC News/Washington Post polls.
There's little change in either state. In Florida, Donald Trump has 50% support among
likely voters to Biden's 48%; it was 51%-47% in an ABC/Post poll Sept. 20. Trump won
the state by 112,911 votes out of more than 9.4 million cast in 2016.
In Pennsylvania, the race stands at 51%-44%, Biden-Trump, a 7-point advantage for the
Democrat; that compares with a 9-point margin late last month. Here, Trump's 2016 win
was even narrower: 44,292 votes out of nearly 6.2 million cast.
グラフ https://a.abcnews.com/images/US/NowVsSeptember_v02_KA_1604091921022_hpEmbed_1x1_608.jpg
PDF文書 https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a62020StateBattlegrounds-FLPA.pdf
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
657 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 13:36:53.06 ID:a5i6xPOD - >>656
Nate Silver@NateSilver538・20分
Not really anything earth-shattering here. The +7 in PA will help Biden in our
averages (though ABC/Post had it +9 before) and the -2 in FL will hurt him (though ABC had Biden down by 4 in FL before).
引用ツイート
Rick Klein@rickklein ・ 26分
NEW polls - Florida - Trump 50, Biden 48
Pennsylvania - Biden 51, Trump 44
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/florida-maintains-toss-status-biden-leads-slightly-pennsylvania/story?id=73930623
Nate Silver@NateSilver538・4分
Biden +4.9 in PA after adding that poll (was +4.7 before) and +1.7 in FL (was +2.0).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
658 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 14:38:11.75 ID:a5i6xPOD - https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2020103100390&g=int
民主、６年ぶり上院奪取に攻勢 下院も多数党維持の勢い―米議会選
2020年11月01日07時28分
【ワシントン時事】３日の米大統領選と同時に行われる連邦議会選は、野党民主党が６年
ぶりとなる上院（定数１００）での過半数奪取に向けて攻勢を強めている。下院（同４３５）
でも多数党を維持する勢いで、民主党が上下両院を制する可能性が出てきた。
上院は外交や人事承認などに権限を持ち、政権運営に大きな影響力を持つ。上院の現有勢力
は共和党５３に対し、民主党４７（無所属２を含む）。今回改選対象の３５議席中、改選数
の多い共和党（２３議席）は「守りの選挙」を強いられている。
選挙分析サイト「クック・ポリティカル・リポート」によれば、共和党が議席を持つアリゾナ、
コロラド両州で民主党候補が優勢。トランプ大統領の盟友グラム上院議員が出馬するサウスカ
ロライナをはじめ、アイオワやメーンなど共和党系の計６州でも接戦が予想される。
一方、テネシー州から出馬する共和党のハガティ前駐日大使は優位に選挙戦を進めている。
全議席が改選される下院では民主党が多数派を維持する公算が大きい。民主党は２０１８年中
間選挙で大勝し、８年ぶりに多数党に復帰した。
関係筋は「米国では党派の分断が深まっており、上院選が大統領選の結果と連動する傾向が強
まっている」と指摘。下院でも再選困難と判断した共和党議員の不出馬が相次いでおり、「ト
ランプ氏の劣勢が反映されている」と語る。
＞＞＞「トランプ氏の劣勢が反映されている」と語る。
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
659 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 14:46:46.72 ID:a5i6xPOD - https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/world/uspresident2020/20201030-OYT1T50027/
［深層ＮＥＷＳ］米大統領選「トランプ氏はペンシルベニア州を取らないとかなり苦しい」
2020/10/30 00:32
渡部恒雄・笹川平和財団上席研究員と海野素央・明治大教授が２９日、ＢＳ日テレの「深層
ＮＥＷＳ」に出演し、米大統領選の終盤情勢について議論した。
渡部氏は、トランプ大統領が追う展開になっていると指摘し、「大変な接戦を繰り広げてい
るペンシルベニア州を取らないと、かなり苦しくなる」と述べた。海野氏は、民主党のバイ
デン前副大統領が２７日にジョージア州で遊説したのは、選挙の勝敗が最高裁にもつれ込む
可能性を見据えて、「共和党の牙城で圧勝し、最高裁に圧力をかけたいのでは」と分析した。
＊実際はペンシルバニアを落とせばトランプ敗退がほぼ確定するので、世論調査各社がPAの
動向に注目している
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
660 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 14:49:45.10 ID:a5i6xPOD - https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO65712080Q0A031C2000000/
トルコリラ5日連続最安値を更新 トランプ氏苦戦が重荷
2020/10/30 23:51 (2020/10/31 3:10更新)
トルコリラが急落している。30日まで5日連続で対ドルの最安値を更新し、1週間で約5%下
げた。米欧との亀裂が広がる中、対トルコ制裁に反対してきたトランプ米大統領の再選が
確実視されていない点も市場の懸念を招いている。
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
661 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 17:00:30.24 ID:a5i6xPOD - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-01/behind-the-scenes-of-the-guo-and-bannon-led-propaganda-machine/12830824
They once peddled misinformation for Guo Wengui and Steve Bannon. Now they're speaking out
ABC Investigations / By Echo Hui, Hagar Cohen
Posted 12hhours ago, updated 6hhours ago
一時期は、ハンター・バイデン関連の偽情報を郭文貴（Guo Wengui）やスチーブ・バノン
の為に宣伝しまくっていた男が、今や告発者になった
Key points:
The New Federal State of China is a self-proclaimed pro-democracy group headed
by Steve Bannon and billionaire Guo Wengui
郭文貴とスチーブ・バノンの率いる自称プロ・デモクラシー・グループ「The New Federal State of China」
An Australian whistleblower is speaking out about how the group spreads
misinformation and conspiracy theories online
このグループは陰謀論や偽情報をオンラインで拡散するためのものと告発者
After leaving the group, he has been threatened by Mr Guo and his followers in Australia
彼はグループを離れたあと、郭文貴とその一派に脅かされている
Their "whistleblowers' movement", rebranded this year by the duo as The New Federal State
of China, soon became the centre of Hunter Biden's laptop scandal.
ハンター・バイデンのラップトップ・スキャンダルはこのThe New Federal State of Chinaの偽情報
The unverified videos and photos they posted allegedly showing Hunter Biden "engaging
in sex and drug acts" have been watched by tens of millions of viewers, although most
mainstream US media have not reported the allegations because the source and substance
of the material could not be verified.
Former core members told the ABC the group is "very, very dangerous to any country", and
the misinformation it recklessly spreads will seriously harm democracy.
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
662 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 17:01:08.05 ID:a5i6xPOD - "[Guo's media] is spreading misinformation. I think it's trying to interrupt the United
State elections," said John Pan, a former core member of the group, speaking out for the
first time.
以下に郭文貴の背景やこの事件の関わりの説明があるけれど省略
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
663 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 17:07:42.96 ID:a5i6xPOD - One of the group's most successful campaigns popularised discredited claims by
a virologist who said COVID-19 was deliberately manufactured in a Chinese lab.
このグループの拡散に成功した偽情報の一つは COVID-19が中国の研究所で作られたというもの
More recently, FirstDraft's researchers found that Mr Guo's supporter's post
about the Hunter Biden scandal from late September is the first traceable mention
of the now-viral rumours.
最近の発信の偽情報がハンター・バイデンのスキャンダル
In the following weeks, Guo's websites have been flooding the internet with the
Hunter Biden rumours.
選挙当日に向けて、ネットに偽情報を多量に流している
"The timing of this just weeks out from the election at a crucial time in the US
[election] campaign, shows that this has been planned and there's been some
coordination here to do maximum damage against the Biden campaign," Dr Kruger said.
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
664 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 17:13:11.75 ID:a5i6xPOD - >>661 流石に一流メディアや大手メディアは裏取り検証とかするので、郭文貴のプロパガンダ
程度には騙されないのだけれど、ネットのブロガーやタブロイドその他が・・・
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
665 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 17:28:11.39 ID:a5i6xPOD - 中山 俊宏 NAKAYAMA Toshihiro@tnak0214・4時間
まさにこれですね。
?The Daily：Apple Podcast内のThe Field: The Shy Biden Voters Among Florida’s Seniors
?podcasts.apple.com
中山 俊宏 NAKAYAMA Toshihiro@tnak0214・4時間
なるほどね、「隠れ反トランプ」はうまい。
引用ツイート
Tee@TeeKinoTakayuki ・ 4時間
概ね同意の内容。隠れトランプは2016年に比べれば圧倒的に少なく、むしろ民主党基盤の州で
さえ目立つのはトランプのヤードサイン。しかし、バイデンのヤードサインが目立たないのは
「バイデンを支持しているわけではないから」であって、今回はむしろ「隠れ反トランプ」と
言える状況と個人的には分析。 twitter.com/tnak0214/statu…
https://twitter.com/5chan_nel (5ch newer account)
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
666 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 17:30:12.77 ID:a5i6xPOD - 中山 俊宏 NAKAYAMA Toshihiroさんがリツイート
tetsuo kotani/小谷哲男@tetsuo_kotani・8時間
昨日の台湾国家安全保障会議で、蔡英文総統はアメリカとの関係は共和・民主問わずに
強化すること、中国とは対等な立場で対話を呼びかけることを指示した。米大統領選の
行方を懸念していることがうかがえる。
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
667 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 17:55:08.21 ID:a5i6xPOD - Paul Krugman@paulkrugman
Next week is going to be horrible, for multiple reasons. One reason I haven't
seen mentioned much in the media has come up a lot in my discussions with Wall
Street types: the personal desperation of the Trumpies if he loses 1/
Trump himself, of course, faces likely financial ruin from his unpayable debts
and perhaps criminal charges if he loses the shield of office. Quite a few
officials will probably also face criminal charges for abuse of office, both
political and financial 2/
But there's another, more mundane issue facing many lower-level Trump minions:
they may not get the traditional soft landing available to former officials,
in which you move into a cushy lobbying or industry job 3/
Normally service in government is a plus on your resume; serving this government,
not so much. For one thing, everyone knows that the Trumpies aren't the A team,
or even the B team; they're people who had nothing better to do 4/
What about K Street? The usual connections won't count for much: Democrats control
the House. If they take the Senate too, they will play hardball, giving McConnell
very little chance to shape legislation ? and anyway, it's obvious that MM personally
despises Trump and co 5/
So if you are, say, Trump's Deputy Assistant Secretary for small endangered mammals,
who's going to offer you a job? You pretty much burned your bridges by joining this
administration, and that has jammed the revolving door. 6/
And if you're tempted to mock my mixed metaphor, all I can say is that if Biden wins,
the upper hand will be on the other foot 7/
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
668 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 17:55:30.49 ID:a5i6xPOD - What all this means is that we're going to be looking at some very desperate people,
many willing to do extreme things to pull this out 8/
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670 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 20:25:53.97 ID:a5i6xPOD - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/us/politics/biden-trump-poll-florida-pennsylvania-wisconsin.html
Election at Hand, Biden Leads Trump in Four Key States, Poll Shows
Nov. 1, 2020, 5:00 a.m. ET
By Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin
SIENA COLLEGE POLL
2016 現在
アリゾナ +4 Trump +6 Biden
フロリダ +1 Trump +3 Biden
ペンシルバニア <1 Trump +6 Biden
ウイスコンシン 1 Trump +11 Biden
Joseph R. Biden Jr. holds a clear advantage over President Trump across four of
the most important presidential swing states, a new poll shows, bolstered by the
support of voters who did not participate in the 2016 election and who now appear
to be turning out in large numbers to cast their ballots, mainly for the Democrat.
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
672 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 20:39:38.28 ID:a5i6xPOD - FOXニュースの記事（評論）
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-biden-election-richard-fowler
Richard Fowler: Americans are tired of Trump’s lies, incompetence, ignorance and failures
Millions of Americans are over Trump’s mismanagement and it’s time to let him know
Richard Fowler By Richard Fowler | Fox News
＊こういうのは一種のアリバイと言うか慣例というか・・
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
674 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 20:44:26.21 ID:a5i6xPOD - ＊スティーグリッツの評論、相変わらずスパイス付き
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/opinion/republicans-biden-taxes.html
Republicans, Not Biden, Are About to Raise Your Taxes
President Trump built in tax increases beginning in 2021, for nearly everyone but those at the very top.
By Joseph E. Stiglitz
Mr. Stiglitz, a university professor at Columbia, is a Nobel laureate in economics.
Oct. 31, 2020
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
675 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 20:50:08.40 ID:a5i6xPOD - 538の世論調査集計にはトラファルガーの数字も入っています
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
ネイト・シルバーはトラファルガーの社長と電話で話した上で
低い格付け評価をしています。538の全集計も見ればわかるよう
にラスムッセンの評価も高くありません。集計には反映されていますが
ABCWaPoとかの世論調査はネイト・シルバーの言うように高品質で一流
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676 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 21:01:00.65 ID:a5i6xPOD - ネイト・シルバー、トアファルガーグループについて
Nate Silver@NateSilver538・10月31日
Quick thread. Warning: not super exciting.
1. In the course of our reporting on Trafalgar Group?part of the due diligence
we often do while entering polls?we've learned that some of their polling was
done for partisan clients that weren't clearly disclosed.
この後説明が続くが省略
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679 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 21:32:54.23 ID:a5i6xPOD - Paul Krugman@paulkrugman・39分
The final stages of the Trump campaign have involved a lot of flailing.
He tried running against imaginary anarchist hordes; when that didn't work, he
tried running against Hunter Biden's laptop; now he's running against evil
doctors 1/
トランプ選挙キャンペーンの最終ステージ：始めはアナーキストの群れ、上手くうけ
ないので次にハンター・バイデンのラップトップ、次には悪徳な医者への攻撃・・
Trump's claim that the pandemic is basically being fabricated by money-grubbing
physicians is grotesque; but it's not as random as it may seem. The shifting
politics of doctors are a window into how both America and the GOP are changing 2/
https://nytimes.com/2020/10/30/us/elections/after-trump-accuses-doctors-of-profiteering-medical-professionals-push-back.html
トランプによればパンデミックは医者たちの金儲けのために仕組まれたもの
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElvEpEVW0AAS7ub?format=png&name=small
Doctors used to be very Republican. Back in 1961 the American Medical Association
urged doctors' wives (hey, it was 1961) to bring their friends over to hear Ronald
Reagan denounce Medicare 3/
医者は伝統的には強い共和党支持だった
Also, medicine isn't and can't be an ordinary business. Doctors are required
to swear some version of the Hippocratic Oath, and while they may not always be
saints, we do expect and often get a higher ethical standard than from many
other professions 5/
医者はそもそも、普通のビジネスではなくて、高いエシカルスタンダードが要求される
Which brings us to the modern GOP: hostile to science and expertise of all
kinds, exalting the profit motive, accusing anyone claiming to stand for higher
principles other than religious faith of "political correctness". Trump isn't
an outlier; he fits right in 7/
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
680 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 21:33:31.56 ID:a5i6xPOD - Oh, and I should mention that there's a remarkable association between modern
conservatism and the hawking of quack nutritional supplements 8/
https://brickhousenutrition.com/pages/benshapiro
So Trump's war on modern medicine isn't just a convenient excuse for his
pandemic failure. It's another battle in the right's long war on rationality
and those who defend it 9/
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
681 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 21:40:54.38 ID:a5i6xPOD - Nate Silver@NateSilver538・12分
How the NYT/Siena polls affected our averages:
AZ: They have Biden +6. Our average goes from +3.2 to +3.4
FL: They have Biden +3. Our average goes from +1.7 to +1.8.
PA: They have Biden +6. Our average stays at +4.9.
WI: They have Biden +11. Our average goes from +8.2 to +8.7.
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- 【政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その760
691 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/11/01(日) 23:51:12.61 ID:a5i6xPOD - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/biden-leads-trump-10-points-final-pre-election-nbc-news-n1245667
Biden leads Trump by 10 points in final pre-election NBC News/WSJ poll
The Democratic nominee leads President Trump 52 percent to 42 percent nationally.
Nov. 1, 2020, 11:00 PM JST
By Mark Murray
NBC‐News/WSJ選挙前最終の世論調査：全米平均でバイデンvsトランプは52−42で、バイデンが
10ポイントのリード
“This is the 11th survey we’ve done in 2020, and so little has changed,” said
Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster
Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
最近の世論調査結果は安定的で、大きな変化が起きていない
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