- 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その758
911 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/09/05(土) 03:37:32.65 ID:MyDyh23t - https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/two-months-go-steady-presidential-race
NATIONAL POLITICS
With Two Months To Go, a Steady Presidential Race
Amy Walter September 4, 2020
大統領選挙まで二ヶ月だが、状況は安定的で大きな変化はみられない
These last two weeks provided Pres. Trump the best opportunity to change the
trajectory of this race. His GOP convention offered a rosy (and inaccurate)
portrayal of a president who effectively tackled the coronavirus pandemic.
Both during and since the convention, Republicans and the president have
focused intensely on the unrest in Kenosha, arguing that it was a snapshot
into what the country would look like with Joe Biden in the White House.
この二週間で民主共和の全国会議とかのイベントがあったが
Pollsters and strategists we spoke with over the last couple weeks of August
? Republican and Democrat ? told us that that didn't see much, if any, real
changes taking place in voter perceptions of the election.
最近の出来事は選挙戦の状況に大きな変化を起こしていない
This week, a slew of new, high-quality polls out this week confirmed their
off-record observations: Biden continues to hold a steady lead over President Trump.
今週に入って出てきた世論調査はバイデンが継続して優位にあるというもの
Post-convention national polls from Quinnipiac, Suffolk/USA Today, CNN and
Selzer & Company show Biden ahead of Trump by 7-10 points. The FiveThirtyEight
model, which incorporates a larger universe of polls, puts Biden's lead at
7.4 percent. That's not much different from Biden's pre-convention lead in early
August of 8.3 percent.
Battleground state polling from Monmouth, Quinnipiac and Fox News find Trump
trailing. More importantly, these polls show the president stuck in the
low-to-mid 40 percent range.
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その758
912 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/09/05(土) 03:39:41.93 ID:MyDyh23t - ＊独立系の選挙分析サイトとして著名なクック・ポリティカル・レポート
●538 Polling Average: Biden vs. Trump Margin
538のサイトのモデルによるバイデンvsトランプの推移
●What The National Polls Can Tell Us
これらの全米世論調査の示すもの
Understandably, many folks are wary of relying on national polls to give us an
accurate picture of the race. After all, Clinton's 2.1 percent national margin
was good for only 227 electoral college votes.
We also know that the country is as polarized as ever, making national polling
less reflective of individual state outcomes.
ヒラリーはトランプに対して2.1％の優位であったが激戦区の州の選挙人獲得で破れたので
全米の世論調査の支持率だけでは判断できない
●過去の大統領選の全米世論調査の支持率vs獲得選挙人の推移
（略）
選挙年 全米世論調査の優位・劣位 選挙人の獲得数と勝敗
2008 53 D 46 R D+7 365 D 173 R D+192
2012 51 D 47 R D+4 332 D 206 R D+126
2016 48 D 46 R D+2 304 R 227 D R+77
Source: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その758
913 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/09/05(土) 03:40:08.08 ID:MyDyh23t - At the same time, high-quality national polls are more consistently fielded
than high-quality state polls. And, for all the criticism of polling in the
2016 election, the national polls were also the most accurate.
As such, the best way to think of the national polls is that they can help
get us in the right neighborhood, but not necessarily to the correct address.
The bigger the margin for Biden, the less important that we get the exact
address. For example, a seven or eight-point margin may not be enough to put
Georgia or Texas into Biden's column. But, it's enough to get him the states
he needs to hit 270. The closer the margin is to four points (like we saw
back in March), the less helpful the national polls become. And, the more we
should just assume a close contest for the Electoral College.
バイデンが全米支持率で7〜8％の優位であればジョージア州やテキサス州を民主党側に
するには不足であるか獲得選挙人で過半数の270を得るのには充分、しかし優位が4％
程度であれば全米支持率の優位は選挙の勝敗には直結しないような接戦状態と言える
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その758
914 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/09/05(土) 03:43:45.98 ID:MyDyh23t - WSJの記事も同様の所見
Yet there was no sign that all that turmoil has actually changed the shape of
the race; a set of polls taken after the end of the Republican convention
showed little change in Mr. Biden’s national lead.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/twin-campaign-debates-for-whom-will-americans-voteand-how-11599231397
Twin Campaign Debates: For Whom Will Americans Vote?and How?
By Gerald F. Seib
Sept. 4, 2020 10:56 am ET
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その758
936 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/09/05(土) 20:51:11.18 ID:MyDyh23t - https://newrepublic.com/article/159254/law-order-backlash-biden-mirage
Osita Nwanevu/September 5, 2020
The “Law and Order” Backlash Against Biden Was a Mirage
New polls show that the premature consensus about Trump’s rhetoric was
wrong?for now, anyway.
トランプ大統領がBLM抗議運動に対抗して持ち出した「法と秩序」戦略は世論調査で見る
限り、少なくとも今、上手く機能していない
According to FiveThirtyEight’s average, Biden leads Trump by over seven points
nationally, 50.4 to 43 percent. And despite the right’s best efforts, the
constituency of Americans who believe Joe Biden is in cahoots with the Black bloc
remains small.
According to The Economist and YouGov’s latest national poll, only 38 percent of
voters believe Biden holds extreme views compared to 56 percent who say the same of
Trump. That holds true even among the always critical over-65 set that the Trump
campaign and the conservative press probably imagined they’d have an easier time
scaring?unsurprisingly, polls have shown them to be more hostile to the protests
and anxious about unrest than the electorate at large. Even so, 50 percent of them
say Trump holds extreme views, while 37 percent say the same of Biden.
On the question of who’d best keep Americans safe, CNN’s latest poll shows Biden
ahead of Trump 51 to 45 percent. Among those 65 and over, Biden leads again, 54 to
44 percent. Quinnipiac’s latest finds 50 percent of likely voters and a 46 percent
plurality of those over 65 believe they’re less safe with Trump as president.
A 42 percent plurality of likely voters and a 46 percent plurality of those over 65
believe they would be safer with Biden as president.
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その758
937 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/09/05(土) 20:59:09.00 ID:MyDyh23t - https://www.afpbb.com/articles/-/3302901
トランプ氏、WWI戦没米兵を「負け犬」と侮辱か 米誌
2020年9月4日 14:10 発信地：ワシントンD.C./米国 [ 米国 北米 ]
【9月4日 AFP】ドナルド・トランプ（Donald Trump）米大統領が2018年に訪仏した際、
第1次世界大戦（World War I）で戦死しフランスの墓地に埋葬されている米海兵隊員ら
を「負け犬」「間抜け」と呼んだとする記事が3日、米誌アトランティック（Atlantic）
に掲載された。
パリ東部にあるエーヌ・マルヌ米国人墓地（Aisne-Marne American Cemetery）へのトラ
ンプ氏の訪問中止は、側近が行った公式説明によれば、雨のため大統領専用ヘリコプター
が離陸できなかったからだとされている。
だが、ジェフリー・ゴールドバーグ（Jeffrey Goldberg）編集長が手掛けた記事によると、
実際はトランプ氏が「雨で髪がぼさぼさになるのを嫌がって」訪問を拒否したのだという。
記事には、「訪問が予定されていた日の朝、トランプ氏は高官らとの会話で『なぜ、あの
墓地に行かなければならないんだ？ 負け犬で埋め尽くされた場所だ』と言った」「訪仏中
の別の会話でも、トランプ氏はベロー・ウッド（Belleau Wood）の戦いで死亡した1800人
以上の海兵隊員について、殺された『間抜け』と呼んだ」と記されている。
いずれの会話も、その場にいた匿名の人物4人から聞いた話だとしている。
トランプ氏と側近らは、この記事を激しく非難。トランプ氏は「でっち上げ」だと記者団に
述べ、証言者が「実在するとしたら、下劣なうそつきだ」「わが国の倒れた英雄たちについ
て、そんなことを言ったことはないと誓ってもいい」と記事の内容を否定した。
ただ、トランプ氏は2016年の米大統領選中、ベトナム戦争（Vietnam War）で捕虜となり英雄
として知られていた故ジョン・マケイン（John McCain）米上院議員に対し、「彼は戦争の英
雄などではない。捕まったから英雄視されているのだ。私は、捕まらなかった人たちのほうが
好きだ」と発言し、侮辱的だと指摘されている。(c)AFP
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その758
938 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/09/05(土) 21:04:28.92 ID:MyDyh23t - https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-defenders-he-doesnt-hate-the-troops-he-just-sounds-like-an-asshole?scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4
Trump’s Defenders: He Doesn’t Hate the Troops, He Just ‘Sounds Like an Asshole’
HAIL TO THE CHIEF
Yes, his allies admit, Trump routinely makes callous comments about U.S. military
personnel. But it’s because he hates the wars they’re forced to fight, not the
troops themselves.
Asawin SuebsaengWhite House Reporter
Updated Sep. 05, 2020 3:08AM ET Published Sep. 04, 2020 7:46PM ET
トランプ大統領の戦没軍人侮辱は、彼の戦争嫌いから来ていておバカなだけで兵士を
憎むものではないと関係者
In The Daily Beast’s interviews with 11 senior administration officials, Trump
aides, Republican operatives, and former and current friends of the president,
several of them mounted a curious defense of Trump. Yes, they admitted, the
commander in chief at times makes callous, tone-deaf comments about American
military personnel behind closed doors. But it’s because he hates the wars
they’re forced to fight, not the service members themselves.
“The president means no disrespect to our troops; it’s just that the way he
speaks, he can sound like an asshole sometimes,” one of these sources, a current
senior administration official, told The Daily Beast. “That’s how he is [when
the cameras are off]… It’s his style.”
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その758
939 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/09/05(土) 21:07:27.42 ID:MyDyh23t - https://www.rawstory.com/2020/09/fox-news-confirms-shocking-story-on-trumps-contempt-for-american-troops-after-the-president-argued-it-was-fake/
Fox News confirms shocking story on Trump’s contempt for American troops ? after the president argued it was ‘fake’
Published 16 hours ago on September 4, 2020By Bob Brigham
Fox News has joined the Associated Press and The Washington Post in confirming
shocking details from the bombshell report in The Atlantic on President Donald
Trump’s contempt for American troops.
アトランティックの記事についてAP、WaPo、Foxが確認
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