- 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その757
697 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/07/25(土) 03:28:27.89 ID:EAiYMNIp - ＊独立系の選挙分析サイト、クック・レポート
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/electoral-college-florida-moves-toss-lean-democrat
Electoral College: Florida Moves From Toss Up to Lean Democrat
Amy Walter July 24, 2020 @amyewalter
大統領選挙状況分析：フロリダ州が、競合・未定から、やや民主党よりに傾く
Given its track record in presidential campaigns over the last 20 years, it’s
hard to think of Florida as anything other than a Toss Up. Since 2000, the winner
of the state has never carried it by more than 5 points. In fact, in four of the
last five presidential elections, the winner squeaked in by 3 points or less.
But, at this point, this battleground state looks less like a 50-50 proposition
and more like a state that is leaning Biden’s way.
フロリダ州は典型的なスイング州で、過去20年にフロリダ州を制した候補が大統領選で勝利
してきたが、それでもそのリードが5％を超えることはなく、過去5回中4回は3％以下だった。
現在は、フロリダ州は50-50よりは、ややバイデン有利に傾いている。
In the FiveThirtyEight poll tracker, Trump held a decent ? though unimpressive, 47-48
percent of the vote against Joe Biden in the Sunshine state from March through April.
By May, it had dropped to 45 percent. He has spent most of June in the 42-43 percent
range. Biden’s lead has expanded from 2 points in March to almost 7 points in July.
538のサイトの世論調査追跡記録によれば、トランプvsバイデンは3月から4月にかけ47-48だったが
5月にトランプは45％、6月には42-43％となった。バイデンのリードは3月に2％で7月には7％に
近くなった。
It’s not just Trump who has seen his numbers slump as the state has struggled to
contain the virus this summer. GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis has seen a drastic change in his
political fortunes from spring to summer. A Quinnipiac poll released this week found
DeSantis’ job approval rating at just 41 percent favorable to 52 percent unfavorable
? a 19 point shift in negative opinion since April.
フロリダ州で支持率の低下しているのはトランプだけでなく（共和党でトランプに近い）州知事の
Ron DeSantも同じで、今週のQuinnipiac 世論調査では支持・不支持は41：52%で4月に比べると19%
支持率が悪化している
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その757
698 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/07/25(土) 03:29:36.04 ID:EAiYMNIp - That July Quinnipiac poll found Biden leading Trump by 20 points on who is best able
to handle the coronavirus, including an eight-point lead with those 65 and older.
For months, Trump has questioned the severity of this crisis. But in Florida, 83
percent of voters see coronavirus as a serious problem, and 66 percent are very, or
somewhat worried that they will get this virus. The only group not taking coronavirus
seriously are Republican voters; 52 percent say they think the virus is under control.
この世論調査では新コロナウイルス対応についてバイデンはトランプに20%の優位を示す。
またフロリダ州の有権者の83%は新コロナウルスを深刻な問題としている。新コロナウイルスを
深刻に捉えていないのは共和党支持者で52%がウイルスはアンダーコントロールという。
Back in April, the last time Quinnipiac polled Florida, Biden had a narrow 4 point
(46-42 percent) lead. In July, that lead has ballooned to 13 points (51-38). The big
changes from April to July were among independents (Biden went from +7 to +16), men
(Biden from -6 to +7) and white men (Biden from -21 to -11). Biden also improved his
vote among Latinos by 9 points (from +8 to +17).
バイデン優勢に貢献している層は無党派層で4月以降、バイデンに+7→+16、男性-6→+7、白人
男性-21→-11、ヒスパニック+8→+17などである
Trump supporters can criticize Quinnipiac’s recent track record in the state (their
final polls in 2018 showed Democrats significantly ahead in both the Governor and
Senate races). Even so, theIr final 2016 poll showed a dead heat in a state that
Trump won by less than 2 points. More important than any polling, however, is the
fact that Trump announced on Thursday that the RNC was cancelling their convention
in Jacksonville. This is about all the proof you need that he and the campaign realize
how big of a hole he’s currently sitting in.
トランプキャンペ−ンはフロリダ州Jacksonvilleで開催を予定していた共和党大会をキャンセル
したが、これはトランプ陣営の抱える問題を象徴している
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その757
699 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/07/25(土) 03:29:59.15 ID:EAiYMNIp - ●現在の各州（選挙人）の状況のまとめ（270人確保で勝利）
https://cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/2020-07/EC%20Ratings.072320.2.pdf
Democrats have 308 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean
categories and would need 0 electoral votes from the Toss Up
民主党優勢の合計は308人
Republicans have 187 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean
categories and would need 43 (100%) electoral votes from the
Toss Up column plus 40 votes from the Lean Democrat column.
共和党優勢の合計は187人、勝利するためには競合州を全部と民主党やや優勢の
州から40人を確保する必要
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その757
700 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/07/25(土) 03:50:44.24 ID:EAiYMNIp - https://www.vox.com/2020/7/24/21335887/portland-trump-dhs-federal-polarization?scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4
Portland, polarization, and the crisis of the Republican Party
“We are witnessing a crisis of democracy that is perfectly acceptable to a
significant portion of the population ? as long as it hurts their enemies.”
By Zack Beauchamp@zackbeauchampzack@vox.com Jul 24, 2020, 11:50am EDT
オレゴン州ポートランドの抗議行動、左右対立の激化と共和党の危機
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その757
701 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/07/25(土) 04:48:51.94 ID:EAiYMNIp - https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07/polling-trumps-protest-response-could-cost-him-2020
“TRUMP COULD NOT BE MORE ON THE WRONG SIDE”: NEW POLL SHOWS TRUMP’S BLACK
LIVES MATTER PROTEST RESPONSE COULD COST HIM 2020
Exclusive polling suggests the protests changed Americans’ minds so quickly, and
so profoundly, that Trump planted himself even further on the wrong side of public
opinion than previously understood.
BY PETER HAMBY JULY 24, 2020
トランプ大統領のBLM抗議行動への対処について、最新の世論調査；彼の対応は大いに間違
いで、それは大統領選の敗北に繋がりかねない
Avalanche found resounding support for the protests not just among Biden supporters,
but among persuadable voters and even soft Trump supporters. The hardcore Vote Trump
respondents were against the protests, with 56% opposing them. But among the softer
Lean Trump set, an eye-opening 59% said the protesters were “completely right” or
“somewhat right”?probably not what the president had in mind when he commandeered
Lafayette Square. And 72% of Americans with Mixed Feelings about the presidential
race?precious undecided voters?said the protesters were right too. “There’s not a
lot of issues where you get even a strong majority of Americans on the same page,”
said Michiah Prull, the CEO of Avalanche. “It speaks to that historic moment, and it
speaks to a degree of national alignment on something that's honestly pretty rare
these days.”
トランプ大統領の「ハードコア支持層」はBLM抗議行動に反対で56%がそうだけれど、「ソフト
なトランプよりの支持層」は59%がBLM抗議行動を「完全に正しい」あるいは「やや正しい」と
している。
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その757
702 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/07/25(土) 04:49:16.78 ID:EAiYMNIp - But just as remarkable were the shifts among those persuadables in the 10 days between
June 1 and June 11, a window that opened with burning cities and Trump’s march to
St. John’s Church, but concluded with mostly peaceful demonstrations nationwide.
During that period Avalanche found that support for the protests grew 10 points among
Mixed Feelings voters, 14 points among Lean Biden voters, and a head-spinning 25 points
among Lean Trump voters. “I had never in my research career seen public opinion shift
on the scale in this time frame,” Prull said. “When we look at this from electoral
context, when you see a 25-point swing in Lean Trump supporters from disapproving of the
protests to at least somewhat agreeing with them, that’s just a scale of public opinion
shift you don’t see in this line of work very often.”
しかし注目すべきことは6月1日から6月11日の10日間に起こった有権者の意見のシフトである。
BLM抗議行動の支持は中間層の中で10%増加しバイデン支持よりの層で14%増加、更にトランプ支持層
で25%増加した。調査にあたったPrullは「私の此れまでの経験で、こんな急速な意見のシフトは見
たことがない」という
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その757
703 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/07/25(土) 04:58:44.47 ID:EAiYMNIp - https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-surveymonkey-republican-governors-75a1f938-754d-4144-a1ba-56d3b1ec891b.html
Exclusive poll: Coronavirus sinks GOP governors in hard-hit states
David Nather
独占世論調査：新コロナウイルスの感染激増の州の共和党知事の支持率が低下
（グラフが貼れないのでオリジナルのサイトでグラフを見てください）
The key to the sharp declines for the four GOP governors was a softening in their
support among Republicans, according to SurveyMonkey chief research officer Jon
Cohen. In Texas, 69% of Republicans still approve of Abbott's handling of the virus,
he said, but that's down from 89% right after Memorial Day.
By contrast, California Gov. Gavin Newsom ? a Democrat ? still has 60% support for
his handling of the virus even though cases have exploded there too (setting a
record of more than 12,800 new cases on Wednesday).
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その757
705 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/07/25(土) 07:07:21.95 ID:EAiYMNIp - ＊テキサス州ヒューストンの地方紙、ヒューストン・クロニクル
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/His-approval-faltering-Republicans-in-15432472.php
His approval faltering, Republicans in battleground Houston districts start to
distance from Trump
Jasper Scherer July 24, 2020 Updated: July 24, 2020 4:53 p.m.
トランプ大統領の支持率低下で、ヒューストンの激戦区の共和党員はトランプと距離を
取り始めた
During Troy Nehls’ recent bid for the Republican nomination in one of Texas’
battleground congressional districts, the Fort Bend County sheriff prominently
displayed his support for President Trump across his campaign website.
“In Congress, I will stand with President Trump to defeat the socialist Democrats,
build the wall, drain the swamp, and deliver on pro-economy and pro-America policies,”
Nehls said under the top section of his issues page, titled “Standing with
President Trump.”
Within two days of Nehls’ lopsided runoff victory, that section had been removed,
along with a paragraph from Nehls’ bio page that stated he “supports President
Trump” and wants to “deliver President Trump’s agenda.” Fresh language now focuses
on his record as sheriff during Hurricane Harvey and managing the agency’s budget.
Nehls’ abrupt shift in tone captures the challenge facing Republican candidates in
suburban battleground districts up and down the ballot, including Nehls’ district and
two neighboring ones, where polling suggests Trump’s coronavirus response has alienated
voters and, for now, created strong headwinds for his party’s congressional hopefuls.
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その757
706 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/07/25(土) 07:10:45.32 ID:EAiYMNIp - https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/e4ca14e406c0e9d22d530e1a40ff17df62ed4447
フロリダ州で最多の173人が新型コロナの感染で死亡 来月の共和党全国大会は中止
7/24(金) 7:51配信
米フロリダ州で23日、新型コロナウイルス感染による死者が1日としてはこれまでの最多
となる173人に達した。感染判明者は1万249人で、5000以上となったのはついに30日連続。
ここ1週間の推移は11466→10328→12478→10347→9440→9785→10239で3日ぶりに1万人を超えた。
累計での感染者数は38万9868人で死者は5520人。陽性率は12・13％となっている。
これを受けてトランプ米大統領は同日、フロリダ州ジャクソンビルで来月に開催する予定
だった共和党全国大会を中止すると述べた。
またテキサス州、カリフォルニア州でも22日に1日としては最多の死者数（197人と157人）を記録。
テキサス州南部のヒダルゴ郡では、3月のニューヨーク州同様に葬儀が追いつかな状況に陥り、遺
体保存のための冷凍トラックが用意された。
| - 政治経済】令和床屋談義 町の噂その757
707 ：日出づる処の名無し[sage]：2020/07/25(土) 07:24:48.71 ID:EAiYMNIp - Kazuto Suzuki@KS_1013・13時間
アリゾナ州は伝統的に共和党が強い州だが、郊外と若いヒスパニック系でリベラルな人口
が増え、新型コロナウイルスの感染者が急増してトランプに対する失望が高まっているこ
ともあり、次の選挙でひっくり返る可能性があるとFT。共和党といっても中道派のマケイ
ンだったしな…。
Trump is losing his grip on traditionally ‘red’ Arizona
Joe Biden’s prospects are being boosted by suburban and Latino voters ? and admirers of John McCain
ft.com
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